Mongolia is moving closer to establishing its first Respiratory Infections Surveillance Collaboratory, a pioneering initiative that aims to strengthen the country’s ability to forecast outbreaks and trends and protect its population from epidemics and outbreaks of respiratory infections such as seasonal influenza, and other respiratory viral infections which are of high burden to the population, especially during the high winter season.
Respiratory infections remain a serious public health challenge in Mongolia. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, influenza seasons have stretched two to three times longer, with rates of influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infection nearly doubling. During the 2024-2025 influenza season, 14-15% of all outpatient visits were caused by influenza and influenza-like illnesses, while severe acute respiratory infections accounted for 39-42% of hospital admissions. In pediatric wards, up to 84% of cases were linked to severe respiratory infections, forcing hospitals to add around 2 000 extra beds each year.
“Mongolia’s health system is under enormous strain due to respiratory viral infections during the winter season. We need to help government to ensure preparedness and readiness of the systems to respond, mitigate the impact, prevent overwhelming of the health system and ultimately reduce burden of disease and save lives.” said Dr Socorro Escalante, WHO Representative to Mongolia. “Forecasting helps the government to undertake evidence-based anticipatory actions. This initiative is an entry point to WHO’s broader support to the government in strengthening systems for epidemic intelligence.”
Building national capacity for epidemic intelligence
WHO, in collaboration with the National Influenza Center (NIC), National Center for Communicable Diseases (NCCD), the ISI Foundation (Italy), and the University of Melbourne (Australia), has been working to build national capacity in epidemic modeling and forecasting. In 2024-2025, two predictive models were successfully piloted. Weekly forecasting reports generated from these models were shared with decision-makers to help anticipate and prepare for outbreaks more effectively, demonstrating the real-world value of epidemic modelling and intelligence.
The Respiratory Infections Collaboratory will serve as a sustainable platform to:
- Strengthen national capacity for respiratory infection modeling and forecasting.
- Provide timely weekly analysis to support evidence-based decision-making.
- Institutionalize the National Respiratory Infections Surveillance Collaboratory as part of the Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence Hub.
The Minister of Health Dr J.Chinburen has welcomed the initiative, emphasizing that institutionalizing the Collaboratory as part of the Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence Hub, along with formalizing Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with international institutes, will help to ensure Mongolia’s long-term resilience against respiratory epidemics and pandemics.
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On 1 September 2025, the WHO Representative in Mongolia, together with international modeling experts, met with Dr J. Chinburen, Minister of Health, to discuss the institutionalization of the Respiratory Infections Surveillance Collaboratory and capacity building for respiratory infection modeling. WHO Mongolia / Jargalan Tsogt
Dr Socorro Escalante highlighted that the Collaboratory represents the importance of adopting global innovation into national surveillance systems. “This initiative is about empowering Mongolia’s health system to take national ownership of epidemic intelligence. It is an investment in long-term national capacity and self-reliance. If we can forecast and prepare ahead of time, we can save lives.”
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At the launch of the training on respiratory infection modelling, Dr Socorro Escalante congratulated Mongolia on its efforts to strengthen its national capacity in forecasting and preparing for outbreaks and highlighted the importance of timely and accurate forecasting in saving lives. WHO Mongolia / Jargalan Tsogt
Building national capacity
The Respiratory Infections Surveillance Collaboratory has been running remotely since 2023 with the ISI Foundation, University of Melbourne and the Mongolian National Influenza Center through the facilitation of WHO. As part of the institutionalization strategy, a dedicated capacity-building training on respiratory infection modelling was held from 2 to 5 September for epidemiologists and technical staff from NCCD, NIC, and National Center for Public Health (NCPH). Supported by WHO, the training is delivered by experts from the ISI Foundation and the University of Melbourne who have been working on modelling and forecasting for Mongolia during the last influenza season.
The participants highlighted how the training laid a solid foundation for forecasting and analysis. Ms. D. Oyungerel, Epidemiologist at NCCD, said, “Although I don’t have a specialized background in mathematics, the training was practical and easy to follow. I now feel confident using modelling to forecast future outbreaks in my field.”
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A participant practices using the forecasting dashboard during the training. WHO Mongolia / Jargalan Tsogt
Ms T. Khostsetseg, Head of Toxicology and Emergency Management Department, NCPH, also highlighted that one of the most fruitful discussions during the training was on strengthening coordination between institutes through the establishment of shared data hubs.
In closing the training, Dr S. Enkhbold, Head of NCCD, emphasized that the training provided the necessary skills and tools to strengthen forecasting to prepare for future outbreaks and epidemics and said, “Better information means better decisions, and better decisions mean better health. With forecasting and modelling, we can be better prepared and prevent deaths.”
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