To ensure better preparedness for future infectious threats, the World Health Organization and partners are bringing together world leaders and influencers from a variety of fields to discuss the future of the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious threats in the next 3 to 5 years.
The WHO is hosting 2 live roundtable discussions with world leaders and experts to explore four potential scenarios on the future of the pandemic and to discuss the implications, potential risks and possible solutions.
Join the conversation on the future of infectious threats and pandemic preparedness. This will be a live Zoom event and you will be able to ask the panel questions via a live Q&A chat option.
1st roundtable: 4 November 2021, 09:00-11:00AM CET
Panelists:
- Dr Renz Argao, Coordinator, Religions for Peace International Youth Committee
- Dr Andrea Hinwood, UNEP Chief Scientist
- Ms Mandipa Ndlovu, Research analyst and policy consultant
- Prof Alice Roberts, Anatomist & anthropologist, author & broadcaster
- Dr Michael J. Ryan, WHO Health Emergencies Executive Director
- Mr Owen Tudor, Deputy General Secretary, International Trade Union Confederation
To learn more about panelists, please click here.
2nd roundtable: 9 November 2021, 15:00-17:00PM CET
Panelists:
- Prof Akin Abayomi, Honorable Commissioner For Health Lagos
- Dr Bruce Gellin, Chief of Global Public Health Strategy, The Rockefeller Foundation
- Mr Ricardo Mena Speck, Director, UNDRR
- His Grace Dr Stephen Samuel Kaziimba Mugalu, Archbishop, Church of Uganda
- Ms Allison Neale, Vice President, Public Policy, Henry Schein
- Professor Steven Taylor, Clinical Psychologist, University of Columbia
- Dr Renee Wegrzyn, Vice President, Business Development, Ginkgo Bioworks
To learn more about panelists, please click here.
Outcomes
- To present the scenarios to a wider audience
- To identify solutions and risks
- To discuss implications and propose actions to mitigate the impact of the current pandemic and ensure better preparedness for infectious threats in the future
A snapshot of the 4 plausible scenarios for the future
The 4 scenarios for the future of the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious threats were built using the morphological approach, one of many scenario development methodologies. The morphological approach enables higher robustness and transparency on key assumptions for each scenario and enables a software-assisted analysis of consistency. In addition, the scenarios are based on the subjective opinions and choices of foresight experts and were validated through multiple consultations with experts from a variety of fields.
These scenarios are not predictions of the future. Rather, they are an invitation to understand and debate the plausible evolutions of the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious threats in the next three to five years.
Scenario 1 - A Little Happiness
The pandemic is over, and COVID-19 is under control. It is considered endemic and most of the global population has acquired vaccine-derived or natural immunity. As a result of the measures, policies and lessons learned during the pandemic, the world has become a greener, fairer, and more equal place and is much better prepared to face future risks.
Scenario 2 - I Love You, I Hate You
Five years after the COVID-19 outbreak, the virus, through multiple mutations and unpredictable, uncontrolled outbreaks, manages to persist and become part of our lives. Humanity keeps up, but the long-lasting impacts of the pandemic on healthcare systems, economies, and the environment start becoming increasingly visible across the world.
Scenario 3: Heartbreak Hotel
The virus has evolved to become even more infectious. Nations across the world react in different ways, and the lack of a global, unified front against the pandemic results in a two-speed world characterised by increasing socioeconomic, technological, environmental, and political disparities.
Scenario 4 - Here Comes Trouble
In addition to a worsening COVID-19 pandemic, a new pandemic emerges. Nations are unable to handle the additional burden of a double pandemic. Public health measures are contradictory, national economies collapse, ecosystem degradation accelerates, extreme weather events are frequent and intense. Humanity is tired and struggles to manage.