COVID-19 Global Risk Assessment

Overview

WHO regularly conducts risk assessments for graded emergencies in accordance with the WHO Emergency Response Framework. Since January 2020, WHO conducted global risk assessments for COVID-19 every three months. With the lifting of the public health emergency of international concern, WHO has shifted to producing COVID-19 risk assessments every six months.

As of mid-2025, the global public health risk from COVID-19 has changed from high to moderate, with declining deaths and hospitalizations since 2022 due to high population immunity, improved clinical management, and similar virulence. Most SARS-CoV-2 variants now belong to the JN.1 Omicron sublineages, which show immune escape but do not result in increased disease severity. Nonetheless, surveillance gaps, reduced genomic sequencing and sharing of sequence information, and limited reporting, especially from low- and middle-income countries, undermine accurate risk assessment. SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate widely, as indicated by sentinel testing and wastewater surveillance, often co-circulating with influenza and RSV. Post-COVID-19 condition is estimated to affect around 6% of symptomatic cases, with reduced risk in vaccinated individuals. WHO encourages integration of COVID-19 monitoring into broader respiratory disease surveillance systems and recommends ongoing vaccination of high-risk populations. While available vaccines remain effective against severe disease and death even in light of variant emergence, global vaccine uptake among high risk groups was low in 2024, raising concerns amid continued virus evolution. Overall, while the direct impact of COVID-19 has lessened, ongoing circulation and virus evolution – both in human populations and established animal reservoirs, low vaccine uptake, and insufficient burden and genomic surveillance data contribute to uncertainty, requiring continued vigilance.